Athletic Club 1–0 Democrata GV: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Democrata GV

Welinton Torrão 36'

2/21/2025

Mineiro - 1 · Troféu Inconfidência - Semi-finalsEstádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Athletic Club50%

×Draw27%

Democrata GV23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchDemocrata GV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.88

Athletic Club

1.42

Democrata GV

0.88

Athletic Club creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.52

creates per match

0.85

0.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.52

Democrata GV

0.85

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.91

Democrata GV

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Democrata GV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

77%

Athletic Club or Democrata GV

73%

Draw or Democrata GV

50%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

24%

Democrata GV wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

76%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

41%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

17%

Democrata GV 1+ goals

59%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

22%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

68%

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.52 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + Athletic Club defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Athletic Club scores more

50%

level

27%

Democrata GV scores more

23%

Athletic Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Amorim

36'

Welinton Torrão↳ Yuri

42'

Welinton Torrao

50'

Lucas Lima

58'

Juan Carlos← Murilo Rosa

58'

Neto Marcolino← Gustavo Caetano

59'

Cleidson← Wallace

62'

Lucas Evangelista← Lucas Lima

65'

Antônio Júnior← Luanderson

68'

Nathan← Alason Carioca

68'

Gustavo← Lincoln

77'

Douglas Pelé← Welinton Torrão

80'

82'

83'

90+1'

90+4'

90+6'

90+8'

Neto Costa← Wesley Gasolina

Athletic

Democrata

1

Cler

4

Lula

3

Donato

2

▼

Lima

6

Wender

13

▼

Luanderso

8

▼

Caetano

7

▼

Rosa

10

Augusto

11

▼

9

1

4

6

A

Yuri

52

▼

Gasolina

3

Edson

5

Dourado

9

▼

Lincoln

7

⚽

▼

Torrão

20

▼

Carioca

10

Braga

8

Amorim

Manager: Roger Silva

68'▲Nathan←▼Alason Carioca

68'▲Gustavo←▼Lincoln

77'▲Douglas Pelé←▼Welinton Torrão

90+8'▲Neto Costa←▼Wesley Gasolina

Athletic Club substitutes

17Nathan23Gustavo2Pelé19Costa21Gonçalves22Cauã13Davi18Barros12Eduardo

Manager: Wladimir Araújo

58'▲Juan Carlos←▼Murilo Rosa

58'▲Neto Marcolino←▼Gustavo Caetano

59'▲Cleidson←▼Wallace

62'▲Lucas Evangelista←▼Lucas Lima

65'▲Antônio Júnior←▼Luanderson

Democrata GV substitutes

17Carlos20Marcolino18Cleidson19Evangelista15Júnior5Felipe12Júnior16Dominy14Washington21Índio