Athletic Club 0–3 Atletico Paranaense

Athletic Club

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Leozinho 90'

Julimar 77' (pen)

K. Viveros 45'

9/24/2025

Serie B · Round 28Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Athletic Club38%

×Draw28%

Atletico Paranaense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Athletic Club

1.23

Atletico Paranaense

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.08

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.08

Atletico Paranaense

1.30

allows per match

Athletic Club

1.00

Atletico Paranaense

1.38

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.02on par

Atletico Paranaense+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

66%

Athletic Club or Atletico Paranaense

72%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

62%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

71%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

35%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

53%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.08 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.30 + Athletic Club defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Athletic Club scores more

38%

level

28%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

34%

Athletic Club at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Zapelli

Atletico Paranaense · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

Leo← C. Teran

45+2'

Luiz Filipe

45+2'

Arthur Dias

45'

K. Viveros↳ Luiz Fernando

55'

Sidimar

56'

Kevin Viveros

59'

Sandry

64'

Felipinho← B. Zapelli

65'

Julimar← Luiz Fernando

66'

Marcelo Ajul

73'

JulimarPenalty confirmed

77'

JulimarPenalty

78'

Alason Carioca← Luiz Filipe

78'

Kauan Lindes← Sandry

78'

Guilherme Cachoeira← Welinton Torrao

86'

Neto Costa← A. Da Cruz

86'

G. Indio← Marcelo Ajul

88'

Fernando← L. Esquivel

88'

Leozinho← Dudu Kogitzki

90+6'

Douglas Pele

90'

Leozinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticAtletico

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots12

7Corners6

12Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target6

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

436Total Passes319

357Accurate Passes254

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1