Athletic Club 0–2 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

America Mineiro

Felipe Amaral 74'

Miguelito 60'

10/25/2025

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Athletic Club41%

×Draw30%

America Mineiro29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Athletic Club

1.15

America Mineiro

0.91

Athletic Club creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

0.87

0.95

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.18

America Mineiro

0.87

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.95

America Mineiro

1.11

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.10scores less

America Mineiro-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

71%

Athletic Club or America Mineiro

70%

Draw or America Mineiro

59%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

17%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

68%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

32%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

11%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

60%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

23%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

59%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.18 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Athletic Club defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Athletic Club scores more

41%

level

30%

America Mineiro scores more

29%

Athletic Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Paulinho

America Mineiro · D

8.0

Match Events

10'

22'

26'

40'

45+1'

46'

Maguinho← Julio Cesar

60'

Miguelito↳ Willian Bigode

61'

Chico Geraldes← David Braga

61'

Ezequiel← A. Da Cruz

61'

Wesley Gasolina← Douglas Pele

64'

Maguinho

66'

Miqueias← Kaua Diniz

69'

Neto Costa← Sandry

70'

David da Hora← Miguelito

71'

Jhosefer← C. Ortiz

73'

Neto Costa

74'

Felipe Amaral

77'

Guilherme Cachoeira← Yuri

83'

Emerson Santos← Yago Souza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticAmerica

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots15

0.38Expected Goals (xG)1.29

7Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots15

2On Target4

2Off Target8

1Blocked3

5Inside Box7

0Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

390Total Passes368

312Accurate Passes286

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1