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Athletic Club MG U20 vs Uberaba U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Athletic Club MG U20
Athletic Club MG U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uberaba U20
Uberaba U20
Unknown 90+2'
Unknown 74'
10/12/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 7Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Athletic Club MG U2054%
×Draw25%
Uberaba U2021%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club MG U20
1.57
Uberaba U20
0.88

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Athletic Club MG U20
1.36
Uberaba U20
0.89

allows per match

Athletic Club MG U20
0.86
Uberaba U20
1.78

finishing

Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par
Uberaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club MG U20 ↓

Uberaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Athletic Club MG U20 or draw
79%
Athletic Club MG U20 or Uberaba U20
75%
Draw or Uberaba U20
46%

Winning margin

Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+
28%
Uberaba U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals
79%
Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals
46%
Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals
21%
Uberaba U20 1+ goals
59%
Uberaba U20 2+ goals
22%
Uberaba U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Uberaba U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club MG U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Uberaba U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.36 + Uberaba U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

Uberaba U20 attack 0.89 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Athletic Club MG U20 scores more
54%
level
25%
Uberaba U20 scores more
21%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

74'
90+2'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro U20: Athletic Club MG U20 1–1 Uberaba U20

Athletic Club MG U20 and Uberaba U20 drew 1-1 in Mineiro U20 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: ? (74', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Portugal in São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais.