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Athletic Club MG U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Athletic Club MG U20
Athletic Club MG U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tres Coracoes U20
Tres Coracoes U20
C. Lucas 69'
Miller 40'
Edvaldo 28'
6/21/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Athletic Club MG U2047%
×Draw23%
Tres Coracoes U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club MG U20
1.75
Tres Coracoes U20
1.36

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Athletic Club MG U20
1.36
Tres Coracoes U20
1.86

allows per match

Athletic Club MG U20
0.86
Tres Coracoes U20
2.14

finishing

Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par
Tres Coracoes U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club MG U20 ↓

Tres Coracoes U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Athletic Club MG U20 or draw
70%
Athletic Club MG U20 or Tres Coracoes U20
77%
Draw or Tres Coracoes U20
53%

Winning margin

Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+
25%
Tres Coracoes U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals
83%
Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals
52%
Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals
25%
Tres Coracoes U20 1+ goals
74%
Tres Coracoes U20 2+ goals
39%
Tres Coracoes U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Tres Coracoes U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club MG U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Tres Coracoes U20 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.36 + Tres Coracoes U20 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tres Coracoes U20 attack 1.86 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Athletic Club MG U20 scores more
47%
level
23%
Tres Coracoes U20 scores more
30%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Edvaldo
40'
Miller
69'
C. Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club MG U20 vs Tres Coracoes U20

Athletic Club MG U20 beat Tres Coracoes U20 2-1 in Mineiro U20 on June 21, 2024.

Goals: Edvaldo (28'), Miller (40'), C. Lucas (69').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Portugal in São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais.