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Athletic Club MG U20 vs Mamoré U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Athletic Club MG U20
Athletic Club MG U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mamoré U20
Mamoré U20
Unknown 90+4', 78', 34'
7/18/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Athletic Club MG U2087%
×Draw9%
Mamoré U203%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club MG U20
2.98
Mamoré U20
0.43

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 593% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Athletic Club MG U20
1.36
Mamoré U20
0.00

allows per match

Athletic Club MG U20
0.86
Mamoré U20
4.60

finishing

Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par
Mamoré U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club MG U20 ↓

Mamoré U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Athletic Club MG U20 or draw
97%
Athletic Club MG U20 or Mamoré U20
91%
Draw or Mamoré U20
13%

Winning margin

Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+
69%
Mamoré U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals
95%
Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals
79%
Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals
56%
Mamoré U20 1+ goals
35%
Mamoré U20 2+ goals
7%
Mamoré U20 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)
96%
Mamoré U20 (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club MG U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Mamoré U20 away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.36 + Mamoré U20 defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 2.98

Mamoré U20 attack 0.00 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Athletic Club MG U20 scores more
87%
level
9%
Mamoré U20 scores more
3%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
78'
90+4'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club MG U20 vs Mamoré U20

Athletic Club MG U20 beat Mamoré U20 3-0 in Mineiro U20 on July 18, 2025.

Goals: ? (34', 78', 90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Portugal in São João Del Rei, Minas Gerais.