Athletic Club MG U20 2–2 Futgol U20: Result & Stats

Athletic Club MG U20

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Futgol U20

9/1/2025

Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 2Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Athletic Club MG U2047%

×Draw24%

Futgol U2029%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club MG U20Expected goals in this matchFutgol U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.29

Athletic Club MG U20

1.68

Futgol U20

1.29

Athletic Club MG U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

1.73

0.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Athletic Club MG U20

1.36

Futgol U20

1.73

allows per match

Athletic Club MG U20

0.86

Futgol U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club MG U20+0.00on par

Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club MG U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Athletic Club MG U20 or draw

71%

Athletic Club MG U20 or Futgol U20

76%

Draw or Futgol U20

53%

Winning margin

Athletic Club MG U20 wins by 2+

24%

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Athletic Club MG U20 1+ goals

81%

Athletic Club MG U20 2+ goals

50%

Athletic Club MG U20 3+ goals

24%

Futgol U20 1+ goals

72%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

37%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club MG U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club MG U20 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club MG U20 attack 1.36 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + Athletic Club MG U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Athletic Club MG U20 scores more

47%

level

24%

Futgol U20 scores more

29%

Athletic Club MG U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Athletic Club MG U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff