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Athletic Club II vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
11/1/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Lezama Facilities

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club II42%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.20
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.95

Athletic Club II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 106 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
71%
Athletic Club II or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
58%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
70%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
34%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
12%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
61%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
25%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
59%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
42%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
29%

Athletic Club II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Athletic Club II 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca

Athletic Club II and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Lezama Facilities in Lezama.