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Athletic Club II vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
Preview
15:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Lezama Facilities
Big match
41%
Athletic Club II
model favours
41%29%31%

Athletic Club II have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Athletic Club II41%
×Draw29%
UD Logroñés31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.23
UD Logroñés
1.02

Athletic Club II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
69%
Athletic Club II or UD Logroñés
71%
Draw or UD Logroñés
59%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
18%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
71%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
35%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
13%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
64%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
27%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
57%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
41%
level
29%
UD Logroñés scores more
31%

Athletic Club II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWLDD
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Athletic Club II host UD Logroñés

April 4, 2027: Athletic Club II take on UD Logroñés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Athletic Club II host UD Logroñés at Lezama Facilities.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.