Athletic Club II 1–1 Tarazona: Result & Stats

Athletic Club II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tarazona

Ibai Sanz 83'

Fuentes 76'

12/14/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Athletic Club II41%

×Draw30%

Tarazona29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchTarazona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.91

Athletic Club II

1.15

Tarazona

0.91

Athletic Club II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.12

creates per match

0.84

0.98

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.12

Tarazona

0.84

allows per match

Athletic Club II

0.98

Tarazona

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Tarazona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

71%

Athletic Club II or Tarazona

70%

Draw or Tarazona

59%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

17%

Tarazona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

68%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

32%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

11%

Tarazona 1+ goals

60%

Tarazona 2+ goals

23%

Tarazona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

59%

Tarazona (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Tarazona defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tarazona attack 0.84 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

41%

level

30%

Tarazona scores more

29%

Athletic Club II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

E. Cedeno

57'

M. Trilles

61'

Manu Rico← Borja Romero

70'

Ekain Azkune← Adrián Pérez

70'

Aingeru Olabarrieta← Iker Varela

73'

Javier Areso← Javi Martín

76'

Fuentes

78'

J. Areso

79'

J. Rodriguez

81'

Ibai Sanz← Beñat Gerenabarrena

83'

85'

85'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Chechu← Fuentes

90'

Pepe Mena← Lluís Llàcer

Athletic

Tarazona

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jokin Arambarri

70'▲Ekain Azkune←▼Adrián Pérez

70'▲Aingeru Olabarrieta←▼Iker Varela

81'▲Ibai Sanz←▼Beñat Gerenabarrena

Athletic Club II substitutes

AzkuneOlabarrietaSanzBujánSolaSantosIruritaIzagirreLeteElíasLuis

Manager: Juanma Barrero

61'▲Manu Rico←▼Borja Romero

73'▲Javier Areso←▼Javi Martín

90'▲Chechu←▼Fuentes

90'▲Pepe Mena←▼Lluís Llàcer

Tarazona substitutes

RicoAresoChechuMenaGilMencíaRamírez