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Athletic Club II vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
Preview
15:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
10/11/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Lezama Facilities
Big match
46%
Athletic Club II
model favours
46%27%27%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Athletic Club II46%
×Draw27%
Real Unión27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.39
Real Unión
0.98

Athletic Club II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
73%
Athletic Club II or Real Unión
73%
Draw or Real Unión
54%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
22%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
75%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
40%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
16%
Real Unión 1+ goals
62%
Real Unión 2+ goals
26%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
64%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
46%
level
27%
Real Unión scores more
27%

Athletic Club II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWLDD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Athletic Club II vs Real Unión — Match Preview

Athletic Club II face Real Unión on October 11, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Athletic Club II host Real Unión at Lezama Facilities.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.