Athletic Club II 1–1 Real Sociedad II

Athletic Club II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

Mikel Goti 74'

Unai Vélez 85' (OG)

9/24/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Athletic Club II42%

×Draw27%

Real Sociedad II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.16

Athletic Club II

1.37

Real Sociedad II

1.16

Athletic Club II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

1.57

creates per match

1.26

1.06

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.57

Real Sociedad II

1.26

allows per match

Athletic Club II

1.06

Real Sociedad II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

68%

Athletic Club II or Real Sociedad II

73%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

58%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

19%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

75%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

40%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

16%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

69%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

32%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

57%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

42%

level

27%

Real Sociedad II scores more

32%

Athletic Club II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. A. Ares Djalo

27'

J. Magunazelaia Argoitia

43'

H. Rincon Lumbreras

62'

Iker Kortajarena← Pablo Marín

62'

Jorge Aguirre← Javi Martón

62'

Yago Cantero← Imanol Ezkurdia

64'

A. Rego

67'

Unai Gómez← E. Urain

74'

Mikel Goti

77'

Beñat de Jesús← Hugo Rincón

77'

Jon Cabo← Beñat Gerenabarrena

77'

Unai Vélez← Alejandro Rego

79'

L. Lespinasse← Alberto Dadie

82'

J. Olasagasti

83'

L. Bilbao

85'

Unai VélezOwn goal

89'

Asier Teijeira← Jon Magunazelaia

Athletic

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Bingen Arostegui

67'▲Unai Gómez←▼E. Urain

77'▲Beñat de Jesús←▼Hugo Rincón

77'▲Jon Cabo←▼Beñat Gerenabarrena

77'▲Unai Vélez←▼Alejandro Rego

Athletic Club II substitutes

GómezJesúsCaboVélezLorenteIspizuaGuruzetaSilleroLópezTrespalacios

Manager: Sergio Francisco

62'▲Iker Kortajarena←▼Pablo Marín

62'▲Jorge Aguirre←▼Javi Martón

62'▲Yago Cantero←▼Imanol Ezkurdia

79'▲L. Lespinasse←▼Alberto Dadie

89'▲Asier Teijeira←▼Jon Magunazelaia

Real Sociedad II substitutes

KortajarenaAguirreCanteroLespinasseTeijeiraCarbonellAranaBaldaGorrotxategiRodríguez