Athletic Club II vs Racing Santander — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Athletic Club II42%
Racing Santander24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Athletic Club II creates 49% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under77
- Over23
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No69
- Yes31
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Athletic Club II ↓
Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches
Racing Santander away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Athletic Club II attack 1.00 + Racing Santander defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Racing Santander attack 1.00 + Athletic Club II defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Athletic Club II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Athletic Club II host Racing Santander on Saturday, 14 August 2021 at 15:30. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Racing Santander
Athletic Club II beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 14, 2021.