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Athletic Club II vs Laredo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Laredo
Laredo
3/6/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Athletic Club II60%
×Draw23%
Laredo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.83
Laredo
0.88

Athletic Club II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 13 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.57
Laredo
0.69

allows per match

Athletic Club II
1.06
Laredo
2.08

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
82%
Athletic Club II or Laredo
77%
Draw or Laredo
40%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
35%
Laredo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
84%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
54%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
28%
Laredo 1+ goals
59%
Laredo 2+ goals
22%
Laredo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
77%
Laredo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Laredo away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Laredo defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Laredo attack 0.69 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
60%
level
23%
Laredo scores more
18%

Athletic Club II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Laredo

Athletic Club II beat Laredo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.