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Athletic Club II vs Haro Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
1/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Instalaciones de Lezama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Athletic Club II48%
×Draw27%
Haro Deportivo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
1.45
Haro Deportivo
0.98

Athletic Club II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 28 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.57
Haro Deportivo
0.89

allows per match

Athletic Club II
1.06
Haro Deportivo
1.32

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
74%
Athletic Club II or Haro Deportivo
73%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
52%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
24%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
77%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
42%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
18%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
62%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
26%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
65%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
48%
level
27%
Haro Deportivo scores more
26%

Athletic Club II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Haro Deportivo

Haro Deportivo beat Athletic Club II 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 15, 2020.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama in Lezama.