Athletic Club II 0–2 Castellón: Result & Stats

Athletic Club II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Castellón

4/30/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Athletic Club II45%

×Draw27%

Castellón29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.08

Athletic Club II

1.41

Castellón

1.08

Athletic Club II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 57 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

1.06

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.57

Castellón

1.11

allows per match

Athletic Club II

1.06

Castellón

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

71%

Athletic Club II or Castellón

73%

Draw or Castellón

55%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

21%

Castellón wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

76%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

41%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

17%

Castellón 1+ goals

66%

Castellón 2+ goals

29%

Castellón 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

61%

Castellón (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 47 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.57 + Castellón defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Castellón attack 1.11 + Athletic Club II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

45%

level

27%

Castellón scores more

29%

Athletic Club II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff