Athletic Club II 2–1 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Athletic Club II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Amorebieta

A. Olabarrieta 40' (pen)

E. Lete 23'

I. Munoz 31'

4/12/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Athletic Club II52%

×Draw26%

Amorebieta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.86

Athletic Club II

1.48

Amorebieta

0.86

Athletic Club II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.12

creates per match

0.74

0.98

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.12

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Athletic Club II

0.98

Amorebieta

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

78%

Athletic Club II or Amorebieta

74%

Draw or Amorebieta

48%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

26%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

77%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

43%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

19%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

58%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

21%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

70%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Amorebieta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

52%

level

26%

Amorebieta scores more

22%

Athletic Club II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

E. Lete

25'

31'

I. Munoz

34'

40'

A. OlabarrietaPenalty

43'

A. Hierro

43'

A. Hierro

43'

46'

P. Hervias← P. Hervias

46'

A. Olabarrieta← E. Aguilar Elizalde

46'

I. Sanz← I. Sanz

65'

J. Calavera← S. Camacho

65'

A. Vicandi← A. Vicandi

66'

S. Camacho

70'

D. Selma

82'

Kaxe← Kaxe

82'

I. Munoz← J. Azkuna

Athletic

Amorebieta

Manager: Jokin Arambarri

46'▲A. Olabarrieta←▼E. Aguilar Elizalde

46'▲—←▼I. Sanz

Manager: Natxo González

46'▲—←▼P. Hervias

65'▲J. Calavera←▼S. Camacho

65'▲—←▼A. Vicandi

82'▲—←▼Kaxe

82'▲I. Munoz←▼J. Azkuna