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Athletic 220 vs UB Mazaalaynuud — Premier League 2020

Athletic 220
Athletic 220
FT
1 – 1
UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
9/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Athletic 22076%
×Draw14%
UB Mazaalaynuud9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic 220
2.81
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.90

Athletic 220 creates 212% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

creates per match

Athletic 220
2.19
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.72

allows per match

Athletic 220
1.07
UB Mazaalaynuud
3.44

finishing

Athletic 220+0.00on par
UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic 220 ↓

UB Mazaalaynuud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Athletic 220 or draw
91%
Athletic 220 or UB Mazaalaynuud
86%
Draw or UB Mazaalaynuud
24%

Winning margin

Athletic 220 wins by 2+
56%
UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Athletic 220 1+ goals
94%
Athletic 220 2+ goals
76%
Athletic 220 3+ goals
52%
UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
59%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
23%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)
89%
UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic 220 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

UB Mazaalaynuud away — creates 0.72, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic 220 attack 2.19 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.81

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.72 + Athletic 220 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Athletic 220 scores more
76%
level
14%
UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
9%

Athletic 220 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic 220 vs UB Mazaalaynuud

Athletic 220 and UB Mazaalaynuud drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.