Athletic 220 5–0 Tuv buganuud: Result & Stats

Athletic 220

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tuv buganuud

11/3/2021

Premier League · Round 1Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Athletic 22041%

×Draw20%

Tuv buganuud38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic 220Expected goals in this matchTuv buganuud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

2.06

Athletic 220

2.14

Tuv buganuud

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 23 away

2.19

creates per match

3.04

1.07

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Athletic 220

2.19

Tuv buganuud

3.04

allows per match

Athletic 220

1.07

Tuv buganuud

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic 220+0.00on par

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic 220 ↓

Tuv buganuud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Athletic 220 or draw

62%

Athletic 220 or Tuv buganuud

80%

Draw or Tuv buganuud

59%

Winning margin

Athletic 220 wins by 2+

23%

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Athletic 220 1+ goals

88%

Athletic 220 2+ goals

63%

Athletic 220 3+ goals

36%

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals

87%

Tuv buganuud 2+ goals

61%

Tuv buganuud 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Athletic 220 (draw refunded)

52%

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic 220 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Tuv buganuud away — creates 3.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic 220 attack 2.19 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.14

Tuv buganuud attack 3.04 + Athletic 220 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Athletic 220 scores more

41%

level

20%

Tuv buganuud scores more

38%

Athletic 220 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic 220 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff