Athens United 1–0 Dothan United: Result & Stats

Athens United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dothan United

6/5/2024

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 7Clarke Central Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Athens United19%

×Draw23%

Dothan United58%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athens UnitedExpected goals in this matchDothan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.77

Athens United

0.89

Dothan United

1.77

Dothan United creates 99% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

0.83

creates per match

1.72

1.83

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Athens United

0.83

Dothan United

1.72

allows per match

Athens United

1.83

Dothan United

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athens United+0.00on par

Dothan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athens United ↓

Dothan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Athens United or draw

42%

Athens United or Dothan United

77%

Draw or Dothan United

81%

Winning margin

Athens United wins by 2+

6%

Dothan United wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Athens United 1+ goals

59%

Athens United 2+ goals

22%

Athens United 3+ goals

6%

Dothan United 1+ goals

83%

Dothan United 2+ goals

53%

Dothan United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Athens United (draw refunded)

24%

Dothan United (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athens United at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Dothan United away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athens United attack 0.83 + Dothan United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Dothan United attack 1.72 + Athens United defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Athens United scores more

19%

level

23%

Dothan United scores more

58%

Dothan United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dothan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff