Atert Bissen 0–2 Liège: Result & Stats

Atert Bissen

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Liège

K. Hazard 85'

D. Nikqi 65'

7/26/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atert Bissen5%

×Draw13%

Liège83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atert BissenExpected goals in this matchLiège

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.42

2.50

Atert Bissen

0.42

Liège

2.50

Liège creates 495% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

3.33

1.67

allows per match

0.17

creates per match

Atert Bissen

0.67

Liège

3.33

allows per match

Atert Bissen

1.67

Liège

0.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atert Bissen+0.00on par

Liège+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atert Bissen ↓

Liège →

0–05%

0–114%

0–217%

0–314%

0–49%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atert Bissen or draw

17%

Atert Bissen or Liège

87%

Draw or Liège

95%

Winning margin

Atert Bissen wins by 2+

Liège wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Atert Bissen 1+ goals

34%

Atert Bissen 2+ goals

Atert Bissen 3+ goals

Liège 1+ goals

92%

Liège 2+ goals

71%

Liège 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Atert Bissen (draw refunded)

Liège (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atert Bissen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Liège away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atert Bissen attack 0.67 + Liège defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.42

Liège attack 3.33 + Atert Bissen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Atert Bissen scores more

level

13%

Liège scores more

83%

Liège at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Liège will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

D. Nikqi

85'

K. Hazard

Atert

Liège

Manager: P. Teixeira

Manager: Gaëtan Englebert