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Atenas vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atenas
Atenas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
6/4/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 14Estadio 9 de Julio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Atenas50%
×Draw28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atenas
1.34
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.79

Atenas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atenas
1.37
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
0.82

allows per match

Atenas
0.77
Ferro Carril Oeste LP
1.31

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste LP+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atenas or draw
78%
Atenas or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
72%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste LP
50%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+
24%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals
74%
Atenas 2+ goals
39%
Atenas 3+ goals
15%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 1+ goals
55%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 2+ goals
19%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)
69%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.77 · 52 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste LP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.37 + Ferro Carril Oeste LP defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ferro Carril Oeste LP attack 0.82 + Atenas defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atenas scores more
50%
level
28%
Ferro Carril Oeste LP scores more
22%

Atenas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atenas vs Ferro Carril Oeste LP

Atenas beat Ferro Carril Oeste LP 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Julio in Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba.