Atenas 1–0 Bella Vista: Result & Stats

Atenas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bella Vista

7/22/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atenas45%

×Draw28%

Bella Vista27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtenasExpected goals in this matchBella Vista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.96

Atenas

1.34

Bella Vista

0.96

Atenas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 27 away

1.05

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Atenas

1.05

Bella Vista

0.85

allows per match

Atenas

1.06

Bella Vista

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par

Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Bella Vista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atenas or draw

73%

Atenas or Bella Vista

72%

Draw or Bella Vista

55%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+

21%

Bella Vista wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals

74%

Atenas 2+ goals

39%

Atenas 3+ goals

15%

Bella Vista 1+ goals

62%

Bella Vista 2+ goals

25%

Bella Vista 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)

63%

Bella Vista (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.06 · 94 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.05 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Atenas defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atenas scores more

45%

level

28%

Bella Vista scores more

27%

Atenas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff