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Atenas vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Atenas
Atenas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Artigas
Artigas
F. Brinon 31'
M. Nunez 71'
7/20/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atenas44%
×Draw27%
Artigas30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atenas
1.39
Artigas
1.10

Atenas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atenas
1.25
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Atenas
1.00
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Atenas+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atenas ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atenas or draw
70%
Atenas or Artigas
73%
Draw or Artigas
56%

Winning margin

Atenas wins by 2+
21%
Artigas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atenas 1+ goals
75%
Atenas 2+ goals
40%
Atenas 3+ goals
16%
Artigas 1+ goals
67%
Artigas 2+ goals
30%
Artigas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atenas (draw refunded)
59%
Artigas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atenas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atenas attack 1.25 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Artigas attack 1.20 + Atenas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atenas scores more
44%
level
27%
Artigas scores more
30%

Atenas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
F. Brinon
70'
G. E. Prado Marinho
71'
M. Nunez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Atenas 1–1 Artigas

Atenas and Artigas drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 20, 2025.

Goals: F. Brinon (31'), M. Nunez (71').

The match was played at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel in Maldonado.