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Ateitis vs Šilas — Cup 2020

Ateitis
Ateitis
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 5
Šilas
Šilas
5/25/2021CupCup · 1st RoundPilaitės futbolo maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ateitis1%
×Draw3%
Šilas96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ateitis
0.57
Šilas
5.06

Šilas creates 788% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ateitis
0.33
Šilas
4.80

allows per match

Ateitis
5.33
Šilas
0.80

finishing

Ateitis+0.00on par
Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ateitis ↓

Šilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–26%
0–310%
0–413%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (13%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Ateitis or draw
4%
Ateitis or Šilas
97%
Draw or Šilas
99%

Winning margin

Ateitis wins by 2+
0%
Šilas wins by 2+
88%

Team goals

Ateitis 1+ goals
43%
Ateitis 2+ goals
11%
Ateitis 3+ goals
2%
Šilas 1+ goals
99%
Šilas 2+ goals
95%
Šilas 3+ goals
84%

Draw no bet

Ateitis (draw refunded)
1%
Šilas (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ateitis at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Šilas away — creates 4.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ateitis attack 0.33 + Šilas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Šilas attack 4.80 + Ateitis defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 5.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Ateitis scores more
1%
level
3%
Šilas scores more
96%

Šilas at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ateitis vs Šilas

Šilas beat Ateitis 6-1 in Cup on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Pilaitės futbolo maniežas in Vilnius.