Atalanta 3–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

3/12/2021

Serie A · Round 27Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Atalanta58%

×Draw21%

Spezia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.09

Atalanta

2.01

Spezia

1.09

Atalanta creates 84% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 57 away

2.06

creates per match

1.00

1.18

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Atalanta

2.06

Spezia

1.00

allows per match

Atalanta

1.18

Spezia

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par

Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

80%

Atalanta or Spezia

79%

Draw or Spezia

42%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

35%

Spezia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

87%

Atalanta 2+ goals

59%

Atalanta 3+ goals

32%

Spezia 1+ goals

66%

Spezia 2+ goals

30%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

74%

Spezia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.18 · 136 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.06 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.01

Spezia attack 1.00 + Atalanta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Atalanta scores more

58%

level

21%

Spezia scores more

20%

Atalanta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff