Atalanta 1–2 Paris Saint Germain: Result & Stats

Atalanta

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Paris Saint Germain

M. Pasalic 27'

M. Choupo-Moting 90+3'

Marquinhos 90'

8/12/2020

UEFA Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atalanta44%

×Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchParis Saint Germain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.67

Atalanta

1.94

Paris Saint Germain

1.67

Atalanta creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.46

creates per match

1.54

1.80

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Atalanta

2.46

Paris Saint Germain

1.54

allows per match

Atalanta

1.80

Paris Saint Germain

1.43

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Atalanta-0.60scores less

Paris Saint Germain+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Paris Saint Germain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

66%

Atalanta or Paris Saint Germain

78%

Draw or Paris Saint Germain

56%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

25%

Paris Saint Germain wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

86%

Atalanta 2+ goals

58%

Atalanta 3+ goals

30%

Paris Saint Germain 1+ goals

81%

Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals

50%

Paris Saint Germain 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

57%

Paris Saint Germain (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.80 · 7 matches

Paris Saint Germain away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.46 + Paris Saint Germain defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.94

Paris Saint Germain attack 1.54 + Atalanta defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atalanta scores more

44%

level

22%

Paris Saint Germain scores more

34%

Atalanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Neymar

Paris Saint Germain · F

8.5

Match Events

27'

M. Pasalic↳ D. Zapata

37'

45+1'

50'

53'

55'

57'

59'

A. Gomez← R. Malinovsky

60'

B. Djimsiti← J. Palomino

60'

P. Sarabia← K. Mbappe

67'

R. Toloi

70'

M. Pasalic← L. Muriel

72'

I. Gueye← L. Paredes

72'

A. Herrera← J. Draxler

75'

L. Paredes

79'

K. Navas← S. Rico

79'

M. Icardi← M. Choupo-Moting

82'

R. Gosens← T. Castagne

82'

D. Zapata← J. Da Riva

85'

J. Palomino

90'

Marquinhos↳ Neymar

90+3'

M. Choupo-Moting↳ K. Mbappe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaParis

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots17

4Corners3

29Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots17

4On Target6

3Off Target8

2Blocked3

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

329Total Passes574

242Accurate Passes490

74%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

29Fouls13

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0