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Atalanta vs Olympiakos Piraeus — UEFA Europa League 2026

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
2/17/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offsGewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atalanta41%
×Draw25%
Olympiakos Piraeus34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.47
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.33

Atalanta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atalanta
1.67
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.00

allows per match

Atalanta
1.67
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.27

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
66%
Atalanta or Olympiakos Piraeus
75%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
59%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
19%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
77%
Atalanta 2+ goals
43%
Atalanta 3+ goals
18%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
74%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
38%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
54%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.67 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.00 + Atalanta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atalanta scores more
41%
level
25%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
34%

Atalanta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atalanta vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Atalanta beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on February 17, 2022.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.