Atalanta 0–5 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Atalanta

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Liverpool

Diogo Jota 54', 33', 16'

S. Mané 49'

Mohamed Salah 47'

11/3/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group D - 3Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atalanta41%

×Draw22%

Liverpool37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.70

Atalanta

1.79

Liverpool

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

2.46

creates per match

1.60

1.80

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Atalanta

2.46

Liverpool

1.60

allows per match

Atalanta

1.80

Liverpool

1.13

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.60scores less

Liverpool+0.03on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

63%

Atalanta or Liverpool

78%

Draw or Liverpool

59%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

21%

Liverpool wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

83%

Atalanta 2+ goals

53%

Atalanta 3+ goals

26%

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

51%

Liverpool 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

52%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.80 · 7 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.46 + Liverpool defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Liverpool attack 1.60 + Atalanta defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atalanta scores more

41%

level

22%

Liverpool scores more

37%

Atalanta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Diogo Jota

Liverpool · F

9.0

Match Events

16'

Diogo Jota↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

21'

Curtis Jones

21'

Georginio Wijnaldum

33'

Diogo Jota↳ J. Gomez

47'

Mohamed Salah↳ C. Jones

49'

S. Mané↳ Mohamed Salah

53'

M. Pessina← L. Muriel

54'

Diogo Jota↳ S. Mané

63'

R. Malinovskyi← M. Pašalić

65'

Roberto Firmino← Diogo Jota

65'

J. Milner← J. Henderson

66'

N. Keïta← A. Robertson

81'

M. Ruggeri← J. Mojica

81'

F. Depaoli← H. Hateboer

81'

S. Lammers← A. Gómez

82'

K. Tsimikas← G. Wijnaldum

82'

N. Williams← T. Alexander-Arnold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaLiverpool

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots15

6Corners7

6Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots15

6On Target12

1Off Target1

2Blocked2

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

455Total Passes602

373Accurate Passes523

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2