Atalanta 1–0 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Atalanta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

9/29/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atalanta44%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.29

Atalanta

1.58

BSC Young Boys

1.29

Atalanta creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.58

creates per match

0.75

1.84

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Atalanta

1.58

BSC Young Boys

0.75

allows per match

Atalanta

1.84

BSC Young Boys

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

69%

Atalanta or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

56%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

22%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

79%

Atalanta 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta 3+ goals

21%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

72%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

37%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

59%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.58 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

BSC Young Boys attack 0.75 + Atalanta defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atalanta scores more

44%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

31%

Atalanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff