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Atalanta vs AS Roma — Serie A 2018

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
G. Scalvini 12'
1/3/2026Serie ASerie A · Round 18New Balance Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Atalanta47%
×Draw25%
AS Roma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.56
AS Roma
1.13

Atalanta creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atalanta
1.87
AS Roma
1.43

allows per match

Atalanta
0.83
AS Roma
1.24

finishing

Atalanta-0.15scores less
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
72%
Atalanta or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
53%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
24%
AS Roma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
79%
Atalanta 2+ goals
46%
Atalanta 3+ goals
21%
AS Roma 1+ goals
68%
AS Roma 2+ goals
31%
AS Roma 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
63%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.83 · 25 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.87 + AS Roma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Atalanta defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atalanta scores more
47%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
28%

Atalanta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
G. Scalvini↳ N. Zalewski
19'
Marten de Roon
26'
H. Ahanor← S. Kolasinac
31'
Gianluca ScamaccaGoal cancelled
43'
Gianluca Mancini
45+3'
Mario Hermoso
46'
Wesley Franca← J. Ziolkowski
59'
I. Hien← G. Scalvini
59'
Y. Musah← N. Zalewski
60'
A. Dovbyk← E. Ferguson
60'
K. Tsimikas← D. Rensch
66'
S. El Shaarawy← M. Soule
72'
D. Maldini← Ederson
72'
N. Krstovic← G. Scamacca
83'
N. Pisilli← M. Kone

Possession

45%Atalanta

Shots

13Atalanta

Pass accuracy

49%Atalanta

Statistics

AtalantaAS
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots10
1.88Expected Goals (xG)0.78
7Corners5
16Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots10
2On Target4
3Off Target3
8Blocked3
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
384Total Passes462
296Accurate Passes376
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
16Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Serie A: Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma

Atalanta beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on January 3, 2026.

Goals: G. Scalvini (12').

AS Roma controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at New Balance Arena in Bergamo.