Atalanta 4–1 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Atalanta

1.58

AS Roma

1.08

Atalanta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.81

creates per match

1.32

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

AS Roma

1.32

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

AS Roma

1.34

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

74%

Atalanta or AS Roma

75%

Draw or AS Roma

51%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

25%

AS Roma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

79%

Atalanta 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta 3+ goals

21%

AS Roma 1+ goals

66%

AS Roma 2+ goals

29%

AS Roma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

65%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atalanta scores more

49%

level

25%

AS Roma scores more

26%

Atalanta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

J. Iličić

Atalanta · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

E. Džeko↳ H. Mkhitaryan

35'

Lorenzo Pellegrini

37'

Ruslan Malinovskyi

39'

Cristian Romero

46'

J. Iličić← M. Pessina

46'

J. Palomino← C. Romero

57'

Antonio Mirante

59'

D. Zapata↳ J. Iličić

64'

Gianluca Mancini

66'

Bruno Peres← L. Spinazzola

70'

72'

72'

73'

81'

A. Miranchuk← R. Malinovskyi

81'

Gonzalo Villar← L. Pellegrini

81'

Carles Pérez← J. Veretout

85'

J. Iličić

89'

J. Mojica← R. Gosens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaAS

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots5

2Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots5

8On Target3

1Off Target2

5Blocked0

8Inside Box1

6Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

563Total Passes452

476Accurate Passes364

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1