Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS Roma

Mario Pašalić 59'

José Luis Palomino 50'

Edin Džeko 45'

2/15/2020

Serie A · Round 24Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atalanta49%

×Draw25%

AS Roma26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Atalanta

1.58

AS Roma

1.08

Atalanta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.81

creates per match

1.32

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Atalanta

1.81

AS Roma

1.32

allows per match

Atalanta

0.84

AS Roma

1.34

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less

AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

74%

Atalanta or AS Roma

75%

Draw or AS Roma

51%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

25%

AS Roma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

79%

Atalanta 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta 3+ goals

21%

AS Roma 1+ goals

66%

AS Roma 2+ goals

29%

AS Roma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

65%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atalanta scores more

49%

level

25%

AS Roma scores more

26%

Atalanta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Berat Djimsiti

Atalanta · D

7.6

Match Events

9'

Gianluca Mancini

27'

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

45'

Edin Džeko

50'

José Luis Palomino↳ Berat Djimsiti

55'

Robin Gosens

59'

Mario Pašalić↳ Robin Gosens

59'

Mario Pašalić← Duván Zapata

62'

Carles Pérez← Justin Kluivert

68'

Jordan Veretout← Gianluca Mancini

78'

Gonzalo Villar← Diego Perotti

83'

Ruslan Malinovskyi← Josip Iličić

86'

Luis Muriel← Alejandro Gómez

88'

Federico Fazio

90'

Carles Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaAS

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots8

6On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

518Total Passes378

432Accurate Passes295

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1