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Atalanta vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
AS Roma
AS Roma
D. Zapata 71'
Rafael Tolói 59'
T. Castagne 44'
S. El Shaarawy 40'
E. Džeko 33', 3'
1/27/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Atalanta49%
×Draw25%
AS Roma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.58
AS Roma
1.08

Atalanta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

Atalanta
1.81
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

Atalanta
0.84
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

Atalanta-0.11scores less
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
74%
Atalanta or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
51%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
25%
AS Roma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
79%
Atalanta 2+ goals
47%
Atalanta 3+ goals
21%
AS Roma 1+ goals
66%
AS Roma 2+ goals
29%
AS Roma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
65%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 30 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.81 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.58

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Atalanta defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atalanta scores more
49%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
26%

Atalanta at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. GómezAtalantaAtalanta · F
9.3

Match Events

3'
E. Džeko↳ N. Zaniolo
23'
Bryan Cristante
33'
E. Džeko↳ S. Nzonzi
35'
Kōnstantinos Manōlas
40'
S. El Shaarawy↳ N. Zaniolo
44'
T. Castagne↳ A. Gómez
53'
J. Palomino← G. Mancini
59'
Rafael Tolói↳ A. Gómez
62'
J. Kluivert← S. El Shaarawy
64'
Steven​ N'Zonzi
65'
A. Florenzi← Lorenzo Pellegrini
71'
D. Zapata↳ J. Iličić
78'
F. Fazio← R. Karsdorp
84'
M. Barrow← J. Iličić
90+1'
M. Pessina← M. Pašalić

Possession

64%Atalanta

Shots

23Atalanta

Pass accuracy

54%Atalanta

Statistics

AtalantaAS
Overview
64%Possession36%
23Total Shots8
9Corners2
7Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots8
5On Target5
8Off Target1
10Blocked2
17Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
598Total Passes345
536Accurate Passes261
90%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Atalanta vs AS Roma

Atalanta and AS Roma drew 3-3 in Serie A on January 27, 2019.

Goals: E. Džeko (3', 33'), S. El Shaarawy (40'), T. Castagne (44'), Rafael Tolói (59'), D. Zapata (71').

Atalanta controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia in Bergamo.