Atalanta U20 1–3 Torino U20: Result & Stats

Atalanta U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Torino U20

9/28/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 6Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta U2046%

×Draw25%

Torino U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U20Expected goals in this matchTorino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.23

Atalanta U20

1.59

Torino U20

1.23

Atalanta U20 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

1.24

1.21

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Atalanta U20

1.50

Torino U20

1.24

allows per match

Atalanta U20

1.21

Torino U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Torino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Torino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw

70%

Atalanta U20 or Torino U20

75%

Draw or Torino U20

54%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+

23%

Torino U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals

80%

Atalanta U20 2+ goals

47%

Atalanta U20 3+ goals

21%

Torino U20 1+ goals

71%

Torino U20 2+ goals

35%

Torino U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Torino U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Torino U20 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Torino U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Torino U20 attack 1.24 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more

46%

level

25%

Torino U20 scores more

30%

Atalanta U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff