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Atalanta U20 vs Parma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Parma U20
Parma U20
4/20/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 34Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atalanta U2035%
×Draw27%
Parma U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta U20
1.25
Parma U20
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atalanta U20
1.50
Parma U20
1.40

allows per match

Atalanta U20
1.21
Parma U20
1.00

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par
Parma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Parma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw
62%
Atalanta U20 or Parma U20
73%
Draw or Parma U20
65%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
15%
Parma U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals
71%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
36%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
13%
Parma U20 1+ goals
73%
Parma U20 2+ goals
37%
Parma U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
48%
Parma U20 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Parma U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Parma U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Parma U20 attack 1.40 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more
35%
level
27%
Parma U20 scores more
38%

Parma U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Parma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atalanta U20 vs Parma U20

Atalanta U20 beat Parma U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 20, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna in Alzano Lombardo.