Atalanta U20 1–1 Lazio U20: Result & Stats

Atalanta U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lazio U20

L. Riccio 13'

F. Serra 42'

9/1/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta U2043%

×Draw27%

Lazio U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U20Expected goals in this matchLazio U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Atalanta U20

1.33

Lazio U20

1.05

Atalanta U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

1.21

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Atalanta U20

1.50

Lazio U20

0.89

allows per match

Atalanta U20

1.21

Lazio U20

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atalanta U20 or draw

71%

Atalanta U20 or Lazio U20

73%

Draw or Lazio U20

57%

Winning margin

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+

20%

Lazio U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atalanta U20 1+ goals

74%

Atalanta U20 2+ goals

38%

Atalanta U20 3+ goals

15%

Lazio U20 1+ goals

65%

Lazio U20 2+ goals

28%

Lazio U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Lazio U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U20 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U20 attack 1.50 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atalanta U20 scores more

43%

level

27%

Lazio U20 scores more

29%

Atalanta U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atalanta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

L. Riccio

32'

L. Riccio

42'

F. Serra

65'

N. Artesani← N. Baldo

65'

A. Michieletto← H. Camara

69'

F. Sulejmani← L. DAgostini

76'

V. Gelli← Mahamadou Balde

76'

C. Cuzzarella← F. Serra

80'

F. Simonetto← L. Bonsignori Goggi

87'

A. Bonanomi

90+3'

P. Pinelli

90+2'

D. Armstrong← M. Maffessoli

90+1'

M. Bigotti← M. Nazzaro

90+1'

P. Pinelli← L. Di Tommaso

Atalanta

Lazio

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Bosi

65'▲N. Artesani←▼N. Baldo

65'▲A. Michieletto←▼H. Camara

80'▲F. Simonetto←▼L. Bonsignori Goggi

90+2'▲D. Armstrong←▼M. Maffessoli

Atalanta U20 substitutes

ArtesaniMichielettoSimonettoArmstrong

Manager: S. Sanderra

69'▲F. Sulejmani←▼L. DAgostini

76'▲V. Gelli←▼Mahamadou Balde

76'▲C. Cuzzarella←▼F. Serra

90+1'▲M. Bigotti←▼M. Nazzaro

90+1'▲P. Pinelli←▼L. Di Tommaso

Lazio U20 substitutes

SulejmaniGelliCuzzarellaBigottiPinelli