Atalanta U19 2–1 Sampdoria U19: Result & Stats

Atalanta U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sampdoria U19

9/12/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 5Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atalanta U1943%

×Draw23%

Sampdoria U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U19Expected goals in this matchSampdoria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.50

Atalanta U19

1.72

Sampdoria U19

1.50

Atalanta U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

1.86

creates per match

1.54

1.45

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Atalanta U19

1.86

Sampdoria U19

1.54

allows per match

Atalanta U19

1.45

Sampdoria U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Sampdoria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw

66%

Atalanta U19 or Sampdoria U19

77%

Draw or Sampdoria U19

57%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

22%

Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

82%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

51%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

25%

Sampdoria U19 1+ goals

78%

Sampdoria U19 2+ goals

44%

Sampdoria U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Sampdoria U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.86 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.54 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more

43%

level

23%

Sampdoria U19 scores more

34%

Atalanta U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff