Atalanta U19 3–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Atalanta U19

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Olympique Lyonnais U19

R. Piccoli 81', 20'

N. Cambiaghi 30'

M. Cherki 90+4'

M. Mbenga 47'

A. Gouiri 33'

3/10/2020

UEFA Youth League · 8th FinalsCentro Sportivo Bortolotti 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atalanta U1938%

×Draw23%

Olympique Lyonnais U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atalanta U19Expected goals in this matchOlympique Lyonnais U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.71

Atalanta U19

1.68

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.56

creates per match

2.20

1.22

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Atalanta U19

1.56

Olympique Lyonnais U19

2.20

allows per match

Atalanta U19

1.22

Olympique Lyonnais U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Olympique Lyonnais U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Olympique Lyonnais U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw

61%

Atalanta U19 or Olympique Lyonnais U19

77%

Draw or Olympique Lyonnais U19

62%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals

81%

Atalanta U19 2+ goals

50%

Atalanta U19 3+ goals

24%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 1+ goals

82%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 2+ goals

51%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Olympique Lyonnais U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.56 + Olympique Lyonnais U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Olympique Lyonnais U19 attack 2.20 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 scores more

39%

Olympique Lyonnais U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olympique Lyonnais U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Piccoli↳ A. Cortinovis

30'

N. Cambiaghi↳ A. Cortinovis

33'

A. Gouiri↳ M. Altikulac

41'

A. Pontet

47'

M. Mbenga↳ M. Altikulac

59'

R. Guth

68'

M. Gusto← C. Lukeba

79'

E. Wissa← M. Mbenga

79'

N. Benaissa← A. Pontet

81'

R. Piccoli↳ D. Heidenreich

85'

B. Barcola← M. Altikulac

90'

N. Cambiaghi

90+6'

O. Kobacki← E. Gyabuaa

90+5'

G. Brogni← N. Cambiaghi

90+1'

S. Finardi← A. Cortinovis

90+4'

M. Cherki↳ F. da Silva

Atalanta

Olympique

1

Margueron

3

Bard

5

Kalulu

6

▼

Lukeba

7

▼

Pontet

2

A

▼

Altikulac

4

Diomande

8

A

Silva

11

⚽

▼

Mbenga

9

⚽

Gouiri

10

⚽

Cherki

1

Gelmi

4

Guth

6

A

2

3

5

8

▼

Gyabuaa

10

A

▼

Cortinovi

9

⚽2

Piccoli

11

⚽

▼

Cambiaghi

7

Traoré

Manager: M. Brambilla

90+6'▲O. Kobacki←▼E. Gyabuaa

90+5'▲G. Brogni←▼N. Cambiaghi

90+1'▲S. Finardi←▼A. Cortinovis

Atalanta U19 substitutes

18Kobacki14Brogni16Finardi12Dajcar15Milani13Bergonzi17Sidibe

Manager: E. Hély

68'▲M. Gusto←▼C. Lukeba

79'▲E. Wissa←▼M. Mbenga

79'▲N. Benaissa←▼A. Pontet

85'▲B. Barcola←▼M. Altikulac

Olympique Lyonnais U19 substitutes

12Gusto18Wissa15Benaissa17Barcola13Felix16Ousmane14Bonnet

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 3–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19

Atalanta U19 and Olympique Lyonnais U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on March 10, 2020.

Goals: R. Piccoli (20', 81'), N. Cambiaghi (30'), A. Gouiri (33'), M. Mbenga (47'), M. Cherki (90+4').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Bortolotti 1 in Zingonia Ciserano.

Atalanta U19 vs Olympique Lyonnais U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Atalanta U19 3–3 Olympique Lyonnais U19