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Atalanta U19 vs Milan U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Atalanta U19
Atalanta U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milan U19
Milan U19
1/20/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 18Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atalanta U1946%
×Draw24%
Milan U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta U19
1.65
Milan U19
1.29

Atalanta U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atalanta U19
1.86
Milan U19
1.13

allows per match

Atalanta U19
1.45
Milan U19
1.43

finishing

Atalanta U19+0.00on par
Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta U19 ↓

Milan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atalanta U19 or draw
70%
Atalanta U19 or Milan U19
76%
Draw or Milan U19
54%

Winning margin

Atalanta U19 wins by 2+
24%
Milan U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atalanta U19 1+ goals
81%
Atalanta U19 2+ goals
49%
Atalanta U19 3+ goals
23%
Milan U19 1+ goals
72%
Milan U19 2+ goals
37%
Milan U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Milan U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta U19 attack 1.86 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Milan U19 attack 1.13 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atalanta U19 scores more
46%
level
24%
Milan U19 scores more
30%

Atalanta U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Atalanta U19 1–0 Milan U19

Atalanta U19 beat Milan U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Carillo Pesenti Pigna in Alzano Lombardo.