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ASWH vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ASWH
ASWH
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
11/19/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 15Sportpark Schildman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASWH35%
×Draw23%
Ter Leede42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASWH
1.56
Ter Leede
1.73

Ter Leede creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

ASWH
0.76
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

ASWH
1.94
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

ASWH+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASWH ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ASWH or draw
58%
ASWH or Ter Leede
77%
Draw or Ter Leede
65%

Winning margin

ASWH wins by 2+
17%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

ASWH 1+ goals
79%
ASWH 2+ goals
46%
ASWH 3+ goals
21%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
82%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
52%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

ASWH (draw refunded)
45%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASWH at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASWH attack 0.76 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + ASWH defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ASWH scores more
35%
level
23%
Ter Leede scores more
42%

Ter Leede at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ter Leede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASWH vs Ter Leede

Ter Leede beat ASWH 6-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Schildman in Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht.