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ASWH vs Smitshoek — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

ASWH
ASWH
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Smitshoek
Smitshoek
4/12/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 29Sportpark Schildman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASWH46%
×Draw20%
Smitshoek34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASWH
2.41
Smitshoek
2.08

ASWH creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

ASWH
1.76
Smitshoek
1.76

allows per match

ASWH
2.41
Smitshoek
3.06

finishing

ASWH+0.00on par
Smitshoek+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASWH ↓

Smitshoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

ASWH or draw
66%
ASWH or Smitshoek
80%
Draw or Smitshoek
54%

Winning margin

ASWH wins by 2+
27%
Smitshoek wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

ASWH 1+ goals
91%
ASWH 2+ goals
69%
ASWH 3+ goals
43%
Smitshoek 1+ goals
87%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
61%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

ASWH (draw refunded)
57%
Smitshoek (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASWH at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.41 · 34 matches

Smitshoek away — creates 1.76, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASWH attack 1.76 + Smitshoek defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.41

Smitshoek attack 1.76 + ASWH defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ASWH scores more
46%
level
20%
Smitshoek scores more
34%

ASWH at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ASWH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASWH vs Smitshoek

Smitshoek beat ASWH 5-3 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Schildman in Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht.