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Aswan Sc vs Pyramids FC — Premier League 2018

Aswan Sc
Aswan Sc
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
4/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Aswan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Aswan Sc24%
×Draw25%
Pyramids FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aswan Sc
1.02
Pyramids FC
1.61

Pyramids FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 129 away

creates per match

Aswan Sc
1.10
Pyramids FC
1.61

allows per match

Aswan Sc
1.61
Pyramids FC
0.94

finishing

Aswan Sc+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aswan Sc ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aswan Sc or draw
49%
Aswan Sc or Pyramids FC
75%
Draw or Pyramids FC
76%

Winning margin

Aswan Sc wins by 2+
9%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Aswan Sc 1+ goals
64%
Aswan Sc 2+ goals
27%
Aswan Sc 3+ goals
8%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
80%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
48%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aswan Sc (draw refunded)
32%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aswan Sc at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aswan Sc attack 1.10 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + Aswan Sc defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aswan Sc scores more
24%
level
25%
Pyramids FC scores more
51%

Pyramids FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aswan Sc vs Pyramids FC

Pyramids FC beat Aswan Sc 3-0 in Premier League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Aswan Stadium in Aswan.