Aswan Sc vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
Aswan Sc35%
El Gouna FC38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 52 home / 117 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Aswan Sc ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Aswan Sc at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches
El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Aswan Sc attack 1.13 + El Gouna FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21
El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Aswan Sc defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
El Gouna FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "El Gouna FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of EgyptEl Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL Masry
Ghazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SC
Haras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Aswan Sc host El Gouna FC on Tuesday, 7 January 2020 at 12:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Aswan Sc 1 – 1 El Gouna FC
Aswan Sc and El Gouna FC drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 7, 2020.
Goals: Mohamed El Sabahi (16' pen), Ahmed Hamdi (78' pen).
The match was played at Aswan Stadium in Aswan.