Aswan Sc 2–2 El Geish: Result & Stats

Aswan Sc

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

El Geish

Ahmed Belhadji 59'

Mohamed Hamdy Zaki 22'

Mostafa Khawaga 46'

Mahmoud Wadi 45+4' (pen)

1/27/2023

Premier League · Round 16Aswan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Aswan Sc34%

×Draw28%

El Geish38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aswan ScExpected goals in this matchEl Geish

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.19

Aswan Sc

1.12

El Geish

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 130 away

1.13

creates per match

0.78

1.60

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Aswan Sc

1.13

El Geish

0.78

allows per match

Aswan Sc

1.60

El Geish

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aswan Sc+0.00on par

El Geish+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aswan Sc ↓

El Geish →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Aswan Sc or draw

62%

Aswan Sc or El Geish

72%

Draw or El Geish

66%

Winning margin

Aswan Sc wins by 2+

14%

El Geish wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aswan Sc 1+ goals

67%

Aswan Sc 2+ goals

31%

Aswan Sc 3+ goals

10%

El Geish 1+ goals

70%

El Geish 2+ goals

33%

El Geish 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aswan Sc (draw refunded)

48%

El Geish (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aswan Sc at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

El Geish away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aswan Sc attack 1.13 + El Geish defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

El Geish attack 0.78 + Aswan Sc defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aswan Sc scores more

34%

level

28%

El Geish scores more

38%

El Geish at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Geish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Raphael Ayagwa

22'

Mohamed Hamdy Zaki↳ Ahmed Khaled

27'

Abdel Rahman Osama← Islam Mohareb

40'

Belal El Sayed← I. El Kabbou

45+4'

Mahmoud WadiPenalty

46'

Mostafa Khawaga↳ Ahmed Samir

55'

Dilson← Mohamed Nagy

57'

Mohamed Shehata← Abdel Rahman Osama

59'

Ahmed Belhadji↳ Ahmed Khaled

67'

Mohamed Shaaban← Ahmed Massoud

67'

Mahmoud Waheed← Karim Tarek

67'

Mohamed Diab← Mahmoud Wadi

76'

Ahmed Hamoudi← Mohamed Hamdy Zaki

77'

Islam Salah← Mohamed Atwa

79'

81'

90+10'

90+10'

90+3'

Statistics

AswanEl

Overview

2Corners4

Discipline

3Yellow Cards3