Aswan Sc 1–0 AL Mokawloon: Result & Stats

Aswan Sc

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AL Mokawloon

8/21/2020

Premier League · Round 21Al-Shorta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aswan Sc30%

×Draw28%

AL Mokawloon42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aswan ScExpected goals in this matchAL Mokawloon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.31

Aswan Sc

1.05

AL Mokawloon

1.31

AL Mokawloon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.61

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Aswan Sc

1.10

AL Mokawloon

1.00

allows per match

Aswan Sc

1.61

AL Mokawloon

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aswan Sc+0.00on par

AL Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aswan Sc ↓

AL Mokawloon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aswan Sc or draw

58%

Aswan Sc or AL Mokawloon

72%

Draw or AL Mokawloon

70%

Winning margin

Aswan Sc wins by 2+

11%

AL Mokawloon wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aswan Sc 1+ goals

65%

Aswan Sc 2+ goals

28%

Aswan Sc 3+ goals

9%

AL Mokawloon 1+ goals

73%

AL Mokawloon 2+ goals

38%

AL Mokawloon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aswan Sc (draw refunded)

41%

AL Mokawloon (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aswan Sc at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

AL Mokawloon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aswan Sc attack 1.10 + AL Mokawloon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

AL Mokawloon attack 1.00 + Aswan Sc defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aswan Sc scores more

30%

level

28%

AL Mokawloon scores more

42%

AL Mokawloon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AL Mokawloon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff