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ASVO vs UPI-ONM — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
FT
2 – 1
UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
6/6/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 9Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

ASVO54%
×Draw28%
UPI-ONM18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
1.35
UPI-ONM
0.65

ASVO creates 108% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 86 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.11
UPI-ONM
0.73

allows per match

ASVO
0.56
UPI-ONM
1.60

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
UPI-ONM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

UPI-ONM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
82%
ASVO or UPI-ONM
72%
Draw or UPI-ONM
46%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
26%
UPI-ONM wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
74%
ASVO 2+ goals
39%
ASVO 3+ goals
15%
UPI-ONM 1+ goals
48%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
14%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
75%
UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.56 · 111 matches

UPI-ONM away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.11 + UPI-ONM defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

UPI-ONM attack 0.73 + ASVO defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASVO scores more
54%
level
28%
UPI-ONM scores more
18%

ASVO at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: ASVO 2–1 UPI-ONM

ASVO beat UPI-ONM 2-1 in Championnat National on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Missérété in Akpo-Missérété.