ASVO 4–0 Etoile Filante: Result & Stats

ASVO

FT

4 – 0

Etoile Filante

4/27/2025

Championnat National · Group B - 28Stade d'Adjohoun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

ASVO53%

×Draw31%

Etoile Filante17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASVOExpected goals in this matchEtoile Filante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.54

ASVO

1.21

Etoile Filante

0.54

ASVO creates 124% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

1.11

creates per match

0.52

0.56

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

ASVO

1.11

Etoile Filante

0.52

allows per match

ASVO

0.56

Etoile Filante

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Etoile Filante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

ASVO or draw

83%

ASVO or Etoile Filante

69%

Draw or Etoile Filante

47%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+

24%

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals

70%

ASVO 2+ goals

34%

ASVO 3+ goals

12%

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

42%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

10%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)

76%

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.56 · 111 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.11 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + ASVO defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ASVO scores more

53%

level

31%

Etoile Filante scores more

17%

ASVO at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff