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ASVO vs Dragons — Championnat National 2019

ASVO
ASVO
FT
3 – 0
Dragons
Dragons
1/29/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 18Stade d'Adjohoun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

ASVO44%
×Draw33%
Dragons23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASVO
1.06
Dragons
0.68

ASVO creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 119 away

creates per match

ASVO
1.10
Dragons
0.81

allows per match

ASVO
0.55
Dragons
1.02

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par
Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

ASVO or draw
77%
ASVO or Dragons
67%
Draw or Dragons
56%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+
18%
Dragons wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals
65%
ASVO 2+ goals
29%
ASVO 3+ goals
9%
Dragons 1+ goals
49%
Dragons 2+ goals
15%
Dragons 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)
66%
Dragons (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.55 · 112 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.02 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.10 + Dragons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dragons attack 0.81 + ASVO defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ASVO scores more
44%
level
33%
Dragons scores more
23%

ASVO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ASVO vs Dragons

ASVO beat Dragons 3-0 in Championnat National on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Adjohoun in Adjohoun.