ASVO 2–0 Cavaliers: Result & Stats

ASVO

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cavaliers

4/9/2026

Championnat National · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

ASVO45%

×Draw32%

Cavaliers23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASVOExpected goals in this matchCavaliers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.71

ASVO

1.11

Cavaliers

0.71

ASVO creates 56% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

1.09

creates per match

0.86

0.57

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

ASVO

1.09

Cavaliers

0.86

allows per match

ASVO

0.57

Cavaliers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASVO+0.00on par

Cavaliers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASVO ↓

Cavaliers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ASVO or draw

77%

ASVO or Cavaliers

68%

Draw or Cavaliers

55%

Winning margin

ASVO wins by 2+

19%

Cavaliers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ASVO 1+ goals

67%

ASVO 2+ goals

30%

ASVO 3+ goals

10%

Cavaliers 1+ goals

51%

Cavaliers 2+ goals

16%

Cavaliers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ASVO (draw refunded)

66%

Cavaliers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASVO at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.57 · 109 matches

Cavaliers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASVO attack 1.09 + Cavaliers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cavaliers attack 0.86 + ASVO defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ASVO scores more

45%

level

32%

Cavaliers scores more

23%

ASVO at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ASVO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff